Housing steps into COP: Opportunities, risks and ways forward

COP30 opened concrete spaces for bringing housing to the climate debates and negotiations. Drawing on the COP engagement of partners and allies from the Hub for Housing Justice, we discuss what this opening means in terms of opportunities and risk for advancing a justice-oriented housing agenda. 

For decades, housing has been one of the most overlooked dimensions of global climate discussions. Even though homes are where climate impacts are felt day by day - through rising temperatures, flooding, storms, and deteriorating living conditions -, housing has rarely appeared in formal climate negotiations or adaptation frameworks. Yet at COP30 in Belém, Brazil, this long-standing blind spot finally began to shift. Housing has started to appear in COP debates, where decision-makers come together to agree on common strategies for climate action. However, given the challenging context of climate negotiations, COP also presents risks as agreed climate efforts may deepen speculative and exclusionary housing dynamics, rather than build pathways towards more just and sustainable housing systems.  

The opportunity 

During COP30 in Belém, we started to hear the connections between the housing crisis and the climate emergency across high-level events, technical sessions, as well as dialogues among governments, civil society and international organisations. One of the most important developments was the inclusion, for the first time, of a dedicated roundtable on housing and the transformation of informal settlements at the Ministerial Meeting on Urbanization and Climate Change, convened by UN-Habitat and the Ministry of Cities of the Brazilian Government. The discussion was an opportunity to bring to the forefront agendas and resources mobilised by partners and allies of the Hub for Housing Justice that demonstrate how unjust housing systems contribute to the drivers and impacts of climate change. These include: studies by Instituto Pólis and Habitat for Humanity Brazil on how the persistence of housing deprivations deepens environmental racism in cities and climate injustices; SDI’s calls for upgrading informal settlements and supporting community-led housing processes; Build Change’s recommendations on expanding access to resilient and truly affordable housing; IIED’s calls for stopping evictions and transforming housing systems for more effective climate responses; among others. These are all essential components of any just climate transition. Housing policy, participants of the roundtable agreed, can no longer be treated as separate from climate policy. 

Beyond the negotiation spaces, housing featured prominently across pavilions and side events. Discussions linked housing to just transitions, locally led adaptation, low-carbon development pathways, and the democratisation of climate finance. Local governments, civil society  organisations, and grassroots movements shared experiences showing how housing is central to resilience and to the everyday realities of people confronting climate risks. The result was a far richer set of conversations than has been possible in any previous COP. 

The risks  

Once again, Belém made explicit the difficulties of generating consensus around redistributive and transformative agendas within COP processes. This was clear with the omission, in the final document of COP30, of a roadmap for the transition away from fossil fuels and for ending deforestation. Within the housing context, we have also seen some warning signs. The Belém Call for Action on Sustainable and Affordable Housing was launched, with ministerial support from governments such as those of Brazil, Kenya, among others. Although this initiative is gaining strength and visibility, it does not present guidelines that could protect the social and ecological function of housing, nor does it offer any explicit support for non-speculative housing production, which we know tends to generate better outcomes for people and the environment. Therefore, we see here the threat of climate funds being used for housing production in ways that will not necessarily meet the needs and aspirations of those most affected by housing injustices. It is critical to make sure that climate funds don’t lead to further speculative housing developments, and that they target efforts that promote instead housing justice.   

Another area of scrutiny is the growing reference to housing in governments’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). In practice, few provide detailed strategies or concrete actions, which means that despite some advances in discourse, most countries have yet to translate this agenda into meaningful policies and budgets. This was showcased in studies by Habitat for Humanity International and UN-Habitat, which reveal uneven progress and show that commitments related to housing remain limited. Without strong local action, the opportunities created at COP30 risk remaining only on paper.  

This COP also included the agreement on a series of indicators for the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), as set up in the COP29 roadmap. The indicators included a range of themes, one of which proposes a purely quantitative measure for “relocating” settlements and infrastructure to assess efforts to decrease risk to climate-related hazards and other extreme events. This is a problematic emphasis that could incentivise and justify the forced eviction of informal settlements and maladaptation investments, in the name of risk reduction. As it is well documented, forced relocations might actually increase vulnerability by negatively impacting all dimensions of vulnerability and exposure – drivers of risk – as identified by the IPCC. Importantly, relocations can destroy solidarity and economic networks that are often the only secure source of livelihoods for the most vulnerable population groups. Also, relocation processes often separate communities from the physical space tied to their livelihoods – such as fishing – without providing meaningful and adequate economic alternatives. 

Ways forward  

There are numerous ways in which we can ensure the housing justice and climate agendas develop in dialogue with each other. These involve advocating for climate policies that protect and expand the right to adequate housing, for adaptation indicators that reflect lived realities, and for financial mechanisms that reach the communities most exposed to climate risks. Potential areas for future advocacy also include monitoring the development and implementation of NDCs and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) to ensure they integrate concerns related to the right to adequate housing. This monitoring creates a basis for accountability and increases pressure on governments to incorporate housing more systematically into their climate commitments and strategies. Further engagement could also involve more direct efforts to raise awareness among climate negotiators about housing justice and its connection to effective climate action. Finally, it is more important than ever to understand the complexities of COP processes, to engage consistently, and to advocate clearly that there can be no climate justice without housing justice. 

At COP30 in Brazil, we have seen housing begin to take the stage. The Hub for Housing Justice and its partners will work together to keep the momentum, while facing the critical challenge of ensuring that these developments place the right to adequate housing at the centre of climate negotiations and action.